为什么俄罗斯反对派领导人阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼必须死?

十大赌博正规老平台专家讨论了普京对批评者的强烈恐惧, 俄罗斯和苏联反对派运动的历史, 以及俄罗斯持不同政见者的下一步打算.

事件发生后仍存在许多问题 可疑的死亡 被监禁的反对派领袖阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼. 直言不讳地批评俄罗斯总统普京, the 47-year-old regime critic died on February 16 in a remote penal colony in the Arctic.

“从长远来看, a figure like Navalny will be remembered as a martyr and inspiration by opposition movements,” 马修Lenoe，副教授 历史 在 十大赌博正规老平台他是十大赌博正规老平台苏联和俄罗斯历史的专家.

Navalny rose to prominence exposing high-level corruption within Russia’s government, 赢得了国际社会的关注，成为一个强有力的反对派象征, 这让他直接成为克里姆林宫的目标.

“Putin is paranoid about criticism because his regime is vulnerable and he has lost much of his former popularity,” 说 兰德尔·斯通, a 政治科学 教授和大学的主任 斯卡尔尼波兰和中欧十大赌博正规老平台中心.

Q&马修·莱诺和兰德尔·斯通

为什么弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)面对批评时脸皮如此薄?

• 批评和反对对普京来说是危险的. 如果大规模的抗议活动席卷全国，军方可能不会支持他.

斯通: Putin is paranoid about criticism because his regime is vulnerable and he has lost much of his former popularity. A number of neighboring authoritarian leaders have succumbed to mass protests—the so-called “color revolutions.“这发生在2000年的塞尔维亚, 2003年在乔治亚州, 2005年在吉尔吉斯斯坦, 2004年和2014年在乌克兰发生了两次. 普京在2010年和2011年面临着大规模的街头抗议, and there were protests all over Russia 在 outset of the war with Ukraine in 2022. 白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦政府, 俄罗斯最亲密的两个盟友, were threatened by mass protests and only managed to repress them as a result of Russian intervention. 普京知道他在俄罗斯的大城市非常不受欢迎. 如果大规模抗议活动开始，军方不太可能支持他.

许多政权批评者, 不仅仅是在普京执政期间, 已经消失了, 被谋杀的, 或者被判处严厉的监禁. Has opposition always been futile in Russia, the former Soviet Union, or Tsarist Russia?

• Russia has a long tradition of non-violent resistance to various authoritarian regimes, 可以追溯到沙皇时代.

Lenoe: 不，这并不总是徒劳的. 现在, 反对派势力几乎没有机会取代普京, who remains popular and who has strong control of the security services and military. 然而, 从沙皇亚历山大二世时期开始, 谁在1855年到1881年间统治, various political movements—not all of them liberal democratic—have propelled central leaders to change policy, 甚至重组社会. 有两种情况, the collapse of the Tsarist autocracy in 1917 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, 反对派联盟推翻了执政政权.

斯通: Russia has a long tradition of non-violent resistance to its various authoritarian regimes, 可以追溯到沙皇时代. 在苏联, 著名的知识分子，包括作家米哈伊尔·布尔加科夫, 鲍里斯•帕斯捷尔纳克, 以及亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴, and the composer Dmitri Shostakovich—were hounded by the KGB [the main internal security agency] because their works were critical of the regime. There was active dissemination of underground literature called samizdat in Soviet times—and being caught with it meant going to prison.

然而，在可怕的压力下，持不同政见者拒绝顺从. Resistance to the Soviet Union always seemed futile until Mikhail Gorbachev opened up public discussion, 突然间，一切都变得可能了. 当军队, 警察, and KGB tried to put the genie back in the bottle by carrying out a coup against Gorbachev in 1991, 正是非暴力抗议导致了政变的失败. 克格勃的精英部队, 阿尔法营, 拒绝向莫斯科的抗议者开火, 随后苏联解体.

Is Putin rightly afraid that his regime could disintegrate like the Soviet Union did in 1991?

• Russia is experiencing resistance to the war in Ukraine on a scale that has rarely been seen before in 历史.

斯通: 是的，同样的事情也可能发生在普京政权身上. Russia is experiencing passive and non-violent resistance to the war in Ukraine on a scale that has rarely been seen before in 历史. 约200,000 Russian men fled the country instead of reporting for the draft in its first few weeks, 与30相比,在整个越南战争期间逃到加拿大逃避征兵的000名美国人.

What are historic examples of opposition movements that have influenced Russian government policies?

• 在80年代末, a loose opposition coalition pushed former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to open up society during the era of perestroika and glasnost.

Lenoe: 反对农奴制, from both liberal dissident intellectuals and from government bureaucrats who saw it as economically inefficient, 帮助说服沙皇亚历山大二世在1861年废除农奴制. 1953年斯大林去世后, 共产主义改革者在领导层中击败了斯大林主义者, 大大降低了恐怖的程度, 将国家投资转向提高生活水平, 并允许更公开地讨论苏联历史, 包括1930年代的大恐怖和第二次世界大战.

在20世纪80年代后半期, 共产主义改革者的松散联盟, 俄罗斯民族主义者, 环保人士, and opponents of the war in Afghanistan pushed Gorbachev toward opening up society during the era of perestroika (reform) and glasnost (openness).

在俄罗斯和苏联历史上, does the 可疑的死亡 or outright murder of an outspoken regime critic usually silences or galvanize opposition movements?

• 短期内，除了最坚定的持不同政见者外，所有人都被恐怖威胁并噤声. 从长远来看，像纳瓦尔尼这样的人物将作为烈士和鼓舞人心的人物被人们铭记.

Lenoe: 在短期内, 至少在俄罗斯是这样, terror does intimidate the opposition and silences all but the most determined dissidents. 例如，如果政权结构不稳定, 如果它受到外国威胁, 没有安全部门的控制权吗, 或者面临严重的经济问题——镇压可能适得其反, 即使是在短期内. 从长远来看, a figure like Navalny will be remembered as a martyr and inspiration by opposition movements.

也就是说, it’s important to stress here that “opposition” doesn’t necessarily mean “supporting democracy.”

斯通: In 2020, Putin attempted to assassinate Navalny with the exotic nerve agent Novichok. 纳瓦尔尼下了毒后自愿返回俄罗斯, 该政权试图抹黑他, 然后把他关起来, 使他的关押条件日益恶化. 去年12月, 他们把他转移到北极的一个流放地, 最后导致, 或允许, 他去死.

The question is why Putin allowed Navalny to live for so long in captivity when he was so ready to assassinate anyone else who opposed him. I think the most likely reason is that Navalny was an imperfect opposition leader who would be much more potent as a martyr. 他返回俄国的行为是自我牺牲, and Russia is a country full of Orthodox Christians who believe in the power of sacrificial love. 大多数俄罗斯人可能不会投票给纳瓦尔尼, 即使是在公平的选举中, but by killing him the regime has granted him credibility and discredited its own moral claims. 我认为这会激起普京的反对. 阿列克谢的妻子， 尤利娅•Navalnaya美国正成为反对意见的重要焦点.

见见你的专家

历史学家 马修Lenoe 是斯大林主义文化和政治方面的专家, 俄罗斯和苏联的历史, 以及大众传媒的历史. 他是 《更接近群众:斯大林主义文化、社会革命和苏联报纸 (哈佛大学出版社，2004年) 基洛夫谋杀案与苏联历史 (耶鲁大学出版社，2010). Lenoe目前正在完成他的第三本书，书名暂定为 情感，经验和启示在红军，1941-1942.

政治学家 兰德尔·斯通罗彻斯特大学的主任 斯卡尔尼波兰和中欧十大赌博正规老平台中心, is an expert on international relations and has written extensively on Russia and Eastern and Central Europe. 他是 控制机构:国际组织与全球经济 (剑桥大学出版社，2011)， Lending Credibility: The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition (普林斯顿大学出版社，2002年) Satellites and Commissars: Strategy and Conflict in the Politics of Soviet-Bloc Trade (普林斯顿大学出版社，1996).